Faculty Of Engineering

A Thesis Submitted To The Faculty Of Engineering At Cairo University In Partial Fulfillment Of The Requirements For The Degree Of Master Of Science In Structural Engineering.

Includes Bibliographic Referances , P 93 :105.

The Egyptian Real Estate Market has witnessed a high level of recessions in selling real estate
units because of its current political, economic, and social situations. Therefore, developers of
Egyptian Real Estate have a strong demand to assess risks encountered in their projects in order
to be able to compute the bidding price of a real estate project in different uncertain scenarios.
This research presents a fuzzy risk management framework that enables developers of Egyptian
Real Estate to assess critical risk events in their projects. The framework consists of three
components: 1) Fuzzy Expert System (FES), 2) Fuzzy consensus-based model, and 3) Fuzzy
Fault and event tree analysis model. The Fuzzy Expert System (FES) is developed to determine
the importance weight factor for each expert, participating in the risk evaluation process, based
on experts' qualifications. The Fuzzy consensus–based model is applied to aggregate experts'
opinions in evaluating risks in a linguistic framework. The Fuzzy Fault and Event tree model is
used to support decision-makers by identifying the critical root causes of the identified risks and
hence develop a mitigation strategy to respond to the risks. A Case Study is presented to evaluate
the results obtained from the framework

Includes CD copy for The Thesis

Includes Abstract in Arabic